The Passenger Transport Model (PMT) was developed by Centralny Port Komunikacyjny (CPK). PMT and passenger traffic forecasting in Poland is focused on road, rail and air transport. Results of the forecasts indicate that the construction of the new CPK multimodal transport hub along with delivering almost 2,000 of new railway lines should improve the level of service and double the number of passengers using long-distance trains in Poland.
According to the forecast, nearly 134 million long-distance rail passengers are expected annually after the project is completed – 108 million passengers on Intercity trains and 26 million on regional express trains. In comparison, PKP Intercity S.A. trains transported about 49 million passengers in 2019. 65 000 passengers should travel daily on the line connecting Warsaw with the new CPK airport alone, which is more passengers than on the A2 Motorway west of Warsaw. The new rail infrastructure is planned to provide the new airport with very good accessibility for train passengers – 40% of the passengers are expected to use the trains for commuting to the airport.
CPK railway investments comprise a total of 2000 km in railways across 12 lines. The new infrastructure is to be used by long-distance connections, including high-speed trains as well as regional trains with denser stop patterns. Some of the new lines are also going to be available for freight traffic.
Passenger Transport Model (PMT) – What is it?
The PMT is a 4-step multimodal transport simulation model. Being multimodal means that it simulates multiple modes of transport, that allows you to assess the impact of those modes on each other. It is possible to analyse the modal shift between rail, road and air transport using PMT. Comparisons between passenger flows in public transport and flows in private cars are an important feature of the model as well. The PMT was developed using PTV VISUM software, which is the platform used by leading transport operators and infrastructure managers (e.g. in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands). The model development was carried out by CPK and focused on a significant extension of the model previously developed at PKP PLK S.A.
PMT simulates multiple modes of transport, including private cars, buses, and airplanes. That ensures that the modelled impact of the CPK project is assessed in a reliable and consistent way. Consequently, the technical solutions chosen by CPK are “tailor-made” – customised for future transport needs. This approach to forecasting also provides solid grounds for applying for EU funds. The increase in the number of train passengers indicates that the CPK project is in line with the assumptions of the European Green Deal.
The works carried out by CPK are in line with the traffic forecasts from the Centre for European Union Transport Projects.
Thanks to the model ability to forecast number of passengers on routes and individual stops, there is a possibility of estimating the rolling stock size. This in turn allows us to assess multiple scenarios in rail transport improvements, meaning we can choose the best solutions. These solutions can then be implemented in technical, economic and environmental studies for individual projects. As part of the process of developing the PMT, the model included the air transport infrastructure, such as the planned airport between Warsaw and Łódź, the new railway lines that form part of the CPK railway investments and the road connections necessary to serve the airport. In addition to this, the PMT includes comprehensive information about every major road and rail infrastructure project to be implemented on a national level in the coming years.
Traffic forecasts indicate the importance of projects developed by CPK in reducing transport exclusion. New railways in areas with poor levels of service should increase the number of passengers travelling on the whole Polish network. The next planned step is to further increase the level of detail in the forecasting, such as by including the Kolej Plus programme in the model.
Who can acquire PMT?
CPK provides it free of charge:
- A technical report detailing the contents of the model and the methodology on how it was built.
- The PMT with all the data and calculation procedures included.
The model can be acquired by such institutions as: local authorities, consulting companies, transport operators and infrastructure managers for planning purposes. In particular, railway solutions that are a part of the model can be incorporated in planning for the sake of consistency of all the improvements to the transport network.
In order to acquire the PMT, a license agreement with CPK must be signed.
If you wish to acquire any of the mentioned assets, please send an e-mail to [email protected] with an indication of the subject of interest and the purpose of its use.