Passenger Transport Model. New STH tool for investment planning
The Solidarity Transport Hub company has developed a Passenger Transport Model (PMT) and a network passenger traffic forecast in Poland, which include road, rail and air transport. The construction of the Solidarity Airport and new STH railway lines will allow for a double increase in the number of passengers in long-distance trains in Poland – as the latest data show.
According to the forecast, nearly 120 million long-distance railway passengers can be expected after the STH operation launch: 95 million passengers in Intercity trains and 25 million in regional express trains. For comparison: in 2019, the PKP Intercity company transported almost 49 million passengers (this year the result will be significantly lower due to the COVID-19 epidemic). In the near future, it is planned to further specify the forecasts for the regional traffic with new assumptions, including, but not limited to those taking into account the Railway Plus programme.
According to the latest data, after the launch of the operation of the new airport, only on the key section of the railway network connecting Warsaw with the STH nearly 65 thousand passengers per day will be travelling (this is more than the number of persons moving currently along the A2 motorway between Warsaw and Łódź per day). The new railway infrastructure will ensure a very good availability of the new airport. According to the calculations of STH, up to 40 per cent of passengers will travel to the STH by railway.
The network traffic forecast clearly indicates the significant importance of the planned railway investment of STH for the elimination of the traffic exclusion in Poland. Construction of new lines, in areas without convenient connections so far, will enable to increase the number of railway travellers and contribute to the increase in the attractiveness of this means of transport in our country
In order to prepare these forecasts, the STH company used a new tool: the Passenger Transport Model. PMT is a 4-stage inter-branch model covering different means of transport. It allows for conducting analyses ofrail competitiveness vis-à-vis other modes of transport, e.g. road and air transport. An important feature of the model is the possibility of comparing passenger flows in public transport with the forecast intensity of individual road traffic.
PMT takes into account various means of transport, including vehicle traffic, bus carriage services and air traffic movement. This allows for a reliable and coherent forecastof changes that will be caused by the implementation of the STH investment for the entire territory of Poland. Thanks to this, the technical solutions prepared by STH will be “tailored”, i.e. adapted to real future transport needs.
With the possibility of forecasting the number of passengers on railway lines and station areas or determining the number of trains required for carriage services, the model enables to comparedifferent scenarios for the development of the transport system. It also enables selection of the best investment options, which will be used, among others, in the works on feasibility studies (STEŚ) for individual investments.
This forecasting approach provides a firm basis for applying for the EU funds. The increase in the number of rail travellers is part of the European Green Deal.
In the course of works on the PMT, the model included the airport infrastructure (together with the designed Solidarity Airport between Warsaw and Łódź), new railway lines as part of the STH Railway Programme (so-called spokes), as well as roads necessary for the operation of the airport. Moreover, information on other plans for the extension of the road and railway infrastructure planned for implementation in the coming years is also part of the model.
PMT was created in the PTV VISUM environment, which is used by leading carriers and infrastructure managers (among others, in Germany, Austria, Switzerland and the Netherlands). Works performed jointly by Databout experts (formerly: WYG International) and STH focused on a significant extension of the model previously developed in the PKP Polskie Linie Kolejowe company. They can support the Centre for European Union Transport Projects (CUPT) in carrying out the forecast of traffic at the strategic level.
The STH railway programme assumes that by 2034 a total of 1,789 km of railway lines within 12 railway routes (including 10 “spokes”) will be executed. New railway lines will be used primarily for operation of long-distance trains, including high-speed rail, as well as by regional trains, and at selected sections – by freight trains.
STH plans to make the PMT available to the institutions and entities concerned. For details, please refer to the Passenger Transport Model website.