Kearney published the report entitled “CPK. Analysis of the impact of the investment preparation and implementation on the economy in Poland”. The implementation of the CPK programme will, due to its scale and global range, have a positive impact on the economy through job creation, budget revenue generation and contribution to the GDP.
According to the analyses of the European Commission, the OECD and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the economic impact of the COVID-19 epidemic is unavoidable. From this point of view, pro-development economic initiatives which will allow Poland to neutralise the effects of a potential slowdown, i.e. pass through them safely, without excessive damage to people and the economy, are very significant.
One of the tools commonly accepted by economists to stimulate the economy are extensive infrastructure investments – such as the CPK. Due to its scale, the CPK programme will have a significant impact on the national economy, both at the project implementation stage and at the stable operationstage. The Kearney report covers the investment phase of the project.
The positive impact of the CPK investment will be visible both at the investment stage (preparatory and construction works that require involvement of specialised companies, subcontractors and thousands of employees), as well as at the operational stage (the need for people, equipment and resources for the hub operation and attracting further investments in the vicinity of the airport, etc.).
For both stages, it will be possible to distinguish four types of economic impact of the CPK:
- Direct – resulting from the activities of companies employed in the design, construction and operation of the airport and railway node (e.g. construction companies, airlines, shops and restaurants)
- Indirect – generated within the supply chain (manufacturers of construction materials, suppliers of aviation fuel, wholesalers supplying shops, etc.)
- Induced – generated by employees employed at the airport and in related businesses, who allocate their income for goods and services in the economy;
- Catalytic – resulting from improving the availability of the region for business passengers, investors and tourists. Increasing attractiveness for investors will allow the construction of new international supply chains. It is this type of impact, which is visible at the stage of airport operation, that is the largest contribution to the impact of airports onthe economy in Europe (both in terms of jobs, budget revenues and GDP). This means that the operation of the CPK Airport will generate benefits for the economy significantly exceeding the direct and indirect effects of the airport’s operational activity.
By translating the above into specific figures, Kearney estimates that thanks to the CPK investment in the period from 2020 to 2034:
- global (total) production in Poland will increase by additional PLN 450.2 billion (direct impact – 148 billion, indirect impact – 200 billion, induced impact – 143 billion). As much as 60% of the achieved impact will fall in the years 2024-2027.
- the gross added value will increase by additional PLN 126.6 billion (direct impact – 61% of total additional added value, indirect impact: 25%, induced impact: 14%) As much as 60% of the total achieved impact will fall within the years 2024-2027.
By translating the above into specific figures, Kearney estimates that thanks to the CPK investment only in 2026, i.e. the peak year of construction:
- total production will increase by additional PLN 73.6 billion
- the gross added value will increase by additional PLN 20.8 billion The additional gross added value generated by the CPK will amount to approx. 0.7% of the GDP in 2026.
- employment will increase by 95.2 thousand new jobs. This means that the investment implementation phase at its peak point may bring approx. 20% more jobs than the biggest Polish employer – Poczta Polska, had in 2019 (81 thousand persons employed). In 2026, railway investments will generate 57 thousand new jobs, airport investments – 28.4 thousand, and road investments – 9.8 thousand.
In the years 2020-2034, the investments carried out within the airport and railway part will bring additional PLN 126.6 billion of gross added value to the national economy. The largest part of economic growth is to come from railway investments – 61%, followed by the airport part – 22% and road investments – 17 percent.
The biggest beneficiary of the CPK will be the construction industry which will receive more than 80% of the investments related to the implementation of the plan. The increase in global production of this sector will amount to approx. PLN 162 billion. The additional gross added value generated in the construction industry will amount to PLN 94 billion. In the peak 2026 year, employment growth in this sector will amount to 72 thousand additional jobs.
Importantly, the CPK project can act as an investment driving innovationdevelopment in Poland, improving the strength of the national economy and building know-how from which the benefits will be derived over the next years.