Almost 300 thousand new jobs. Positive economic impact of the CPK in 2028-2040
Centralny Port Komunikacyjny will be economically viable for Poland. The airport, new railway lines and roads as well as accompanying investments will allow to create 290 thousand new jobs by 2040 and will ensure an increase in total production in Poland by up to PLN 90 billion per year. These are the conclusions from the second part of the report on the CPK prepared by Kearney, an analytical company.
In the first part of the report, which was published in July this year, analysts focused on the construction periodof the CPK. In the case of the airport, this means the time until the end of 2027, and in the case of railway investments – until the end of 2034. The second part of the report just published concerns the operating period, i.e. the impact on the economy of the operating CPK infrastructure. The analyses covered the years 2028-2040, i.e. 13 years after the assumed launch of the operation: of the CPK Airport with a railway and road hub and over 500 km of the planned 1,800 km of new high-speed lines.
This report shows that the CPK will be economically viable for Poland, the Poles and the Polish economy. If we take into account that financing of the construction of the airport is to take place to a large extent on commercial terms and railway investments are to be co-financed from the EU funds, it can be clearly seen that preparations for this investment should be continued
The CPK means transport facilitation, new jobs and tax inflows. Our investment will change all sectors of the economy. The CPK will not only change the way we travel, we carry out public investments, we develop cities and in which we cooperate with other economies, but at the same time it will be a significant incentive for Poland and the region
As calculated by the authors of the Kearney report, already in 2028 the CPK Airport will provide 238 thousand new jobs in the economy. In 2040, aviation-related employment will increase to 217 thousand jobs, while the rail-related segment will reach a level of 73 thousand new jobs. In total, this gives 290 thousand jobs related to the CPK in 2040.
Unlike the CPK construction stage, during which we calculated the economic impact on the basis of capital expenditures, after the opening of the airport planned for 2027, the economic benefits will depend to a large extent on the number of passengers and the quantity of goods handled. The impact also consists of both railway investments completed by 2027 and subsequent ones, road infrastructure and the surroundings of the port
According to the calculations of Kearney, already in the first year of operation of the new airport and the first stage of part of railway investments – i.e. over 500 km of 1,800 km of the planned number of km of railway lines – the CPK will generate an increase in total production in Poland by PLN 71 billion. In turn, the gross added value, i.e. the sum of additional profits of enterprises, remuneration of employees and depreciation of fixed assets due to the CPK, will increase by more than PLN 50 billion in 2028.
As with other hubs in the world, since the opening, most of the expected benefits of the CPK will be the so-called catalytic effect. It consists of gains for the economy resulting, among others, from improvingthe communication availability of the country and the region, tourism development, increasing the mobility of residents, stimulating innovation and new technologies and developing the cargo, industry, business segment, etc.
According to the forecasts, from 2028 to 2040 the increase in total production due to the CPK operations and related infrastructure will amount to PLN 986 billion in total. The gross added value will increase in total in the forecast period by PLN 780 billion.
The investments completed under the CPK programme will enable to generate benefits significantly exceeding the maximum potential of the current Chopin Airport, the main limitation of which will be the capacity of the infrastructure. Compared to the Chopin Airport, the additional effect resulting from the existence of the CPK during the forecast period will amount to PLN 26-48 billion of gross added value per year and 120-173 thousand additional jobs.