IATA’s new forecast confirms CPK’s potential as a major global hub
The CPK Airport is expected to handle over 32 million passengers in its first year of operation, in 2032, and more than 40 million passengers by 2040. CPK will be an important passenger hub and cargo node. Its opening will be preceded by a period of growth in traffic across the Masovian Voivodeship, driven by the modernisation of Chopin Airport and Warsaw-Modlin Airport. These are the conclusions from the latest IATA forecast for 2024-2060 for airports in the Masovian region.
The Centralny Port Komunikacyjny (CPK) company, as the project progresses, has revised its air traffic forecasts. Today, it unveiled the latest projection, prepared for CPK by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The 2024 forecast was created to update the business plan and master plan for CPK Airport, as well as to revise the Civil Aviation Development Policy by the Ministry of Infrastructure. The study takes into account the latest circumstances, including the updated CPK launch date in 2032 and revised railway schedules.
– Forecasts confirm the assumptions we have adopted. Every investment should be based on solid foundations, namely numbers, and in the case of the Central Transportation Hub (CPK), we will rely on them. The results of the latest air traffic forecast for airports in the Mazovia region are unequivocally positive and indicate significant potential for growth in passenger numbers.
The expansion of long-haul travel
At CPK Airport, all categories of air traffic will be handled, with the primary focus on the development of long-haul traffic, driven by transfer passengers. To ensure the profitability of the new airport after its opening, all commercial traffic will be relocated from Chopin Airport to CPK (and, if the carriers decide, to other airports). However, there is no final decision yet regarding the transfer of military, government, and sanitary traffic.
IATA has assumed that the current capacity of Chopin Airport is a maximum of around 23.5 million passengers, with flexibility up to +10% – equating to approximately 26 million passengers annually. This is due, among other factors, to the more even distribution of traffic throughout the day and year, as well as the growing fleet and higher aircraft load factor.
IATA predicts that by 2030 – two years before the planned opening of CPK – Chopin Airport will experience demand for about 29.5 million passengers, and by 2032, this figure will rise to 31.4 million passengers annually.
– Handling such a number of passengers is only possible with the modernisation of Chopin Airport, which, after the transfer of traffic, will serve as a strong starting point for CPK. Without well-planned investments at Chopin, we would face stagnation in hub traffic development until 2032. This would result in a smaller network of connections, restricted growth for LOT Polish Airlines, and weakened economic development,
That is why Polish Airports (PPL) plan to launch expanded infrastructure by the summer of 2029, which will increase the capacity to approximately 30 million passengers per year (with a flexibility of +10%, reaching approximately 33 million passengers).
According to the assumptions adopted for the forecast, in the years 2025-2028, PPL plans to increase the daily limit by approximately 20 flight operations (take-offs and landings) from the current 600-620 operations (depending on aircraft size and noise emissions). From the summer of 2029, following the completion of infrastructure expansion, the forecast assumes a gradual increase in the daily limit in line with demand, up to a maximum of around 800 daily operations (while maintaining the current restriction on the night-time limit, i.e., the prohibition of take-offs and landings between 23:30 and 5:30).
Increase in passenger number thanks to investments
The IATA forecast for the Mazovia region highlights a slowdown in air traffic growth during 2025–2028, attributed to capacity constraints at existing airports. However, a sharp increase is projected from 2029 onwards, coinciding with the completion of the Chopin and Modlin airport expansions. Despite this, the additional capacity is expected to reach its limit by around 2032, underscoring the timely need for CPK’s launch to meet growing demand.

– The 2024 IATA forecast projects an annual passenger increase at CPK of 1.5–2 million compared to the 2023 forecast, translating to 3–5% more passengers depending on the year. This growth directly correlates to a revenue boost of hundreds of millions annually,
While preparing the forecast, IATA conducted industry consultations that included Polish Airports, Warsaw-Modlin Airport, LOT Polish Airlines, and other major carriers in Poland, ground handling agents, cargo companies, and travel agencies.

Transfer and Origin-Destination passengers
The IATA 2024 forecast predicts a long-term increase in origin-destination passengers (those beginning or ending their journey at Centralny Port Komunikacyjny (CPK), and continuing with ground transportation) through to 2060.
– This is advantageous from a revenue perspective for the airport. Such passengers can fully utilise the commercial offerings in both the airside and landside areas, use parking facilities, and access public transport, thereby boosting non-aeronautical revenue
In the 2024 Forecast for CPK, the share of transfer passengers has slightly decreased compared to the 2023 forecast, mainly due to the growing importance of point-to-point passengers. IATA predicts that by 2035, transfer traffic will account for approximately 37%. In the long term, the current forecast indicates transfer traffic at about 40%.

For comparison, airports such as Amsterdam-Schiphol, Munich, and Helsinki have a transfer traffic share of around 36-40%, while Frankfurt Airport handles about 50% of transfer passengers.
The transfer traffic analysis shows significant potential for CPK Airport to develop transfer traffic on routes between Europe and Asia, Europe and North America, and North America and Asia.
– The analysis reveals that in the next few years, it’s possible to triple the current transfer traffic, provided that sufficient capacity is focused on a single airport, namely CPK. This will result in a substantial improvement in the air connectivity index for Poland and increased air cargo transportation,
Flexible Adjustment of CPK’s Capacity
Higher forecasts for CPK Airport are good news, as they indicate higher revenues and a faster opportunity to ensure greater capacity. The results will serve as a basis for detailed analyses aimed at adjusting the infrastructure’s capacity during the opening phase and potentially updating the business model.
– The design process of CPK Airport incorporates modularity, meaning the ability to phase the scope of equipment and infrastructure. This ensures that the implemented scope of each investment stage aligns with current traffic forecasts and that capacity is flexibly adjusted to meet actual needs,
The terminal design phase, now nearing completion, covers both passenger phases: 34 million and 44 million passengers annually. The building permit for the terminal includes both the opening phase and future expansion. However, it is possible to increase capacity on the opening day to an estimated 38 million passengers annually before the full expansion is completed.
The main hall of the CPK terminal will be built from the outset with a structure that accounts for future expansion, but with a phased approach to finishing and equipping the facility. Capacity can be increased by equipping the terminal with additional infrastructure, such as check-in counters, security screening areas, document control points, baggage claim conveyors, and baggage handling systems. Some of the equipment may be transferred from the modernised Chopin Airport, eliminating additional costs for new equipment purchases. Furthermore, the terminal is designed to accommodate additional piers with parking stands for aircraft.
Cargo growth dynamics
IATA estimates that air cargo and mail throughput at CPK will grow from approximately 128,000 tonnes in 2024 to around 200,000 tonnes by 2030, reaching nearly 1.5 million tonnes by 2060.
This represents a substantial growth trajectory, albeit more gradual than in earlier forecasts. The revised pace reflects factors such as the time needed to realign supply chains, noted during industry consultations, as well as the adjusted timeline for CPK’s operational launch.
– We reassessed the assumptions regarding cargo, aligning the initial values with current realities. IATA collected this data from carriers, cargo agents, couriers, and all stakeholders involved in the cargo market

According to the forecast, the development of air cargo and mail at Centralny Port Komunikacyjny (CPK) will be based on freight carried in the cargo holds of passenger aircraft (belly cargo), which will account for approximately 55%, as well as dedicated cargo flights (known as all-cargo operations) and courier services (known as integrators), which will collectively account for approximately 45%.
In addition, CPK’s cargo operations will be supplemented by Road Feeder Service (RFS), a road transport service closely linked to air cargo operations. However, the volumes of this type of traffic are treated as supplementary and are not included in the main air cargo and mail forecasts.
High-Speed Rail, GDP and demography
IATA has incorporated the current assumptions and schedules for CPK’s railway investments in its forecast. These plans include launching the High-Speed Rail (HSR) line between Warsaw, CPK Airport, and Łódź by the end of 2032, coinciding with the airport’s opening.
By 2035, the Y line is expected to be extended from Łódź through Sieradz to Wrocław and Poznań. For the purposes of the forecast, IATA has assumed that by 2040, the northern section of the CMK line to Gdańsk will be operational, and by 2050, a line through Radom to Rzeszów will be completed. However, these issues will be definitively settled once the ongoing analyses within the Integrated Railway Network are concluded.
The IATA forecast heavily relies on GDP projections for Poland provided by S&P Global. The forecasts also take into account a decline in Poland’s population to approximately 33 million by 2050. However, notably, the Warsaw metropolitan area, which is the largest generator of traffic in the Masovian region, is projected to see a slight population increase.
Analysis results indicate that environmental regulations will negatively affect traffic forecasts, particularly in the 2030s following stricter regulations. According to IATA, these regulations are expected to lead to approximately a 7% reduction in traffic compared to a scenario without new regulations. However, in the long term, technological advancements in aircraft design and a decline in the cost of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) are expected to mitigate this negative impact.
The analysis was conducted by the IATA Consulting team, which has extensive experience in forecasting air traffic globally. IATA is an international organization representing over 320 airlines from 120 countries, accounting for more than 80% of global passenger air traffic.